January 28, 2004

Okay, Howard Dean is Almost Finished

To call Dean's second place finish in New Hampshire "close" is to approach a cliff face, jump off, and attempt to land on the ground without so much as a bruise. But apparently it's worse than that. Howard Dean is now down to $5 million. Barring a Missouri win next Tuesday, it looks like we may stuck with Kerry. Unless Dean musters up Robert Kennedy-like support in California and many of the big states, and reenergizes his campaign. Kennedy, however, was more of an idealist than Dean is. And it ain't exactly 1968.

However, while I woefully miscalculated the percentage points, I was dead-on in my place predictions.

[UPDATE: Dan Spencer has compiled all blog NH predictions with success and failure rates.]

Posted by DrMabuse at January 28, 2004 01:18 PM
Comments

Yes, I'm afraid you may be right. Unless he can convince someone like Clark to sign onto his campaign. I'm pretty sure Kerry win win MO - the Dems there tend to be on the conservative and establishment side. I think the only mini Tuesday race Dean has a chance of winning would be NM. Too bad that probably won't hold him until he gets to places where he has a bigger base of support like MI, CA, and NY.

Posted by: Charles at January 29, 2004 01:06 AM

The fascinating question is why anybody who knows anything about presidential politics would believe that Howard Dean has ever had a chance to get elected is difficult for me to understand. Arguing that he has balanced a budget which, truth be told is smaller than most large cities, makes him capable of running the U.S. Treasury? Jimmy Carter (probably the most decent man we've ever elected) got to Washington and found out that the people he needed to run the government were people who had expierience running the government. Dean has played on Americans inherent distrust of Government, and admirably the doomed to fail militarism of this administration, expecting they would never get aroungd to looking at him and his qualifications to be president. It is not just the rant, it is the underlying question that has been there from the begining - is this man qualified to be president? Once people get beyond using their votes as protests I think the overwhelming answer is going to be no.

Posted by: Ed at January 29, 2004 03:50 AM